This market resolves YES if, before 12:00 AM ET on July 4, 2026, Donald Trump, acting as President of the United States, orders or publicly authorizes a kinetic U.S. military attack against Cuba.

This market resolves NO if no such attack is ordered or publicly authorized before that time.

Resolution criteria

For the purposes of this market:

• Military attack means kinetic military action involving U.S. armed forces, weapons, missiles, bombs, airstrikes, naval strikes, troop landings, or other direct uses of force against Cuban territory, Cuban military assets, or Cuban government targets.

• Invasion is not required for a YES resolution. Limited strikes count.

• Economic sanctions, tariffs, embargoes, cyber operations, covert actions without credible confirmation, espionage, or threats do not count.

• Terrorism or unofficial violence does not count unless it is credibly reported as a U.S. government-directed military action.

• The attack must be supported by credible reporting from major international news outlets or official U.S. government confirmation.

• If military action begins before July 4, 2026, the market resolves YES even if broader conflict continues afterward.

Notes
If Trump leaves office before July 4, 2026, this market resolves NO unless the qualifying action occurred while he was president.