Resolution criteria
Anthropic's initial share price will be determined by the opening price on the first day of public trading following its IPO. Resolution will be based on the official opening price reported by the exchange where Anthropic lists (expected to be NYSE or Nasdaq). If the IPO does not occur by December 31, 2026, the market resolves N/A.
Background
Anthropic has begun preparations for a potential IPO as soon as 2026, hiring Silicon Valley law firm Wilson Sonsini to advise on the process. As of February 12, 2026, Anthropic announced that it had raised $30 billion in a Series G funding round, bringing its post-money valuation to $380 billion. By August 2025, Anthropic's run-rate revenue reached over $5 billion—making Anthropic one of the fastest-growing technology companies in history, with annualized turnover now at $14 billion. Anthropic now serves over 300,000 business customers, and its number of large accounts—customers that each represent over $100,000 in run-rate revenue—has grown nearly 7x in the past year.
Considerations
The risks are that they'll have to invite public inspection of their business models as they continue to lose more money than they make. With public markets, there's going to be a little more scrutiny. A single earnings report could tank a stock. Market commentary from late December indicated an expanding IPO pipeline for 2026, featuring AI-related prospects, while also highlighting that a surge in volatility could abruptly close this opportunity. A large AI IPO would likely require a supportive risk backdrop and a sustained period of calm markets to price smoothly and then trade well in the aftermarket.
This description was generated by AI.
Update 2026-02-26 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Stock splits: The market will resolve based on the pre-split price (the stock price as defined on private trading platforms like Hiive and EquityZen), not the post-split IPO price.
Update 2026-02-27 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Stock split handling: The market will resolve based on the share price adjusted to reflect the share structure as of February 27, 2026. Any stock splits occurring after this date will be reversed for resolution purposes.
Example: If there is a 1-10 split after Feb 27 and the IPO price is $32, the market would resolve to the pre-split equivalent (the 300-349 bucket in this example).
1,000People are also trading
@Bayesian Forge says the latest round was at $259.14 per share. So that'd be like $380B / $259.14 ~= 1.466 billion shares.
@rogs that's a good question. I'd meant the pre-split value, yes. The stock as defined in these platforms.
@JoeandSeth I'm not sure what you intend by referencing those secondary markets. Presumably if the stock splits they will show the new split-adjusted price, so I'm not sure how that helps to resolve the ambiguity.
I think the clearest statement is that you mean based on the shares as of a given date (e.g. today).
Also note that there was a previous 20:1 split, so even just saying "pre-split" is a little ambiguous. Best to give a particular date as reference, I think.
@rogs will reverse any split that occurs after Feb 27, if that helps?
Right now they both show somewhere in the 300s.
If there was a 1-10 split tomorrow, the actual IPO was March 1 with the stock price being $32, I would resolve to the 300-349-bucket.
@JoeandSeth Forge claims the actual share price of the recent round was $259.14.
See table here: https://forgeglobal.com/anthropic_stock/#fundingAndValuation
@rogs Thanks for the context. I'm still new to the whole pre-IPO trading concept.
But IIRC the two links I shared cover post-round trading, which matches well with the higher predictions for future valuation https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/anthropic-highest-valuation-in-2026