Resolution criteria
The market resolves based on the total duration of U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran and Iranian retaliatory strikes, measured in consecutive days. The market ends when either side ceases all offensive operations for 24+ consecutive hours.
Background
The U.S.-Israeli operation began with strikes killing Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei and several other senior government officials. Iran fired missiles at targets in Israel and Gulf Arab states after vowing massive retaliation for Khamenei's killing. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps said missiles and drones were used in a sixth "wave" of retaliatory attacks, vowing to continue its warfare in response. The Trump administration was planning a "multiday operation".
Considerations
Analysts have warned that the fighting could potentially draw the United States into a protracted conflict with no clear exit, as Iran's leadership oversees extensive military abilities and a network of regional proxy forces. The outcome depends heavily on whether Iran's new leadership structure chooses to escalate, de-escalate, or negotiate following the death of Khamenei and other senior officials.
1,000People are also trading
@Dawid Hello! And thanks for the question. Yes, most definitely, although I did not know you could do this without resolving the whole market. I have never done this before so I will have to look at a tutorial.
@Dawid Hi again, I do not think Manifold gives the option to do this without resolving the market but if you do find a way, please let me know and I will do my best
@Gemc a saw a few markets that closed only a few options, but i never did that myself so I don't really know how
@Dawid I think that this may be what happens at the end of the market. For example - if I had multiple options here that could happen, I could use the % option and split accordingly. However, this question is more direct with only one outcome that will resolve “YES” at 100%
@Gemc https://manifold.markets/BlitzEver/f1-2026-prop-bets-australia-melbour?r=RGF3aWQ
here you have a few bets resolved and the rest open
@Dawid The difference is that question has independent answers, so it can be partially closed. This question has dependent answers (probability sums to 100%) so it can't be partially closed.
@EvanDaniel Hello! and thanks for the question. This is a direct market, I cannot think of an “other” scenario - this was automatically added by manifold.
@Gemc Thank you!
In the future, if you don't want an "other" option, you can turn it off by setting "Who can add new answers later?" to "No one".
@Gemc You also currently have this set so anyone can add answers, I would recommend changing it so only you can.
