MANIFOLD
Will something CRAZY happen due to the Anthropic/DoD situation?
10
Ṁ130Ṁ2.3k
Mar 29
27%
chance
10

The United States DoD currently is pressing Anthropic to allow the military to use their chatbot to commit war crimes, with no restrictions. Dario Amodei is reluctant, wanting to only allow certain tools for certain war crimes.

Unlike other "SOMETHING CRAZY???" markets, this does NOT resolve based upon Google search trends. Search is in major decline, & not a reliable source of perception of stories nor events.

"CRAZY" here means unexpected or extreme. If, for example, Hegseth drunkenly ordered Amodei kidnapped to a torture site, that would be "CRAZY." Or if the chatbot were pirated by the DoD, or they broke up the company, or seized assets, &c.

Events like the DoD simply choosing another slop vendor, or the two sides coming to an agreement, would not count.

Allotting 30 days. Will only resolve early in case of a clear YES.

No AI summaries nor clarifications will be permitted. Slop will not be considered a reliable source for resolution. Slop comments will be hidden.

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So far it seems we've entered a world where the actual thing that happened was less crazy than your crazy examples and more crazy than your non-crazy examples

@DavidSpies What's happened that you consider crazy?

@ChurlishGambit The first "supply chain threat" designation aimed at an American company? The US government showing that it doesn't care to honor existing, already-negotiated contracts? Both of these seem straightforwardly crazier than "we're gonna get our slop from someone else" and straightforwardly less crazy than "Dario Amodei has been arrested for espionage and non-compliance with DoW guidelines on AI tool use".

@inaimathi If you think "the government doesn't care to honor contracts" is new, you haven't been paying attention. We're in the second decade of Trumpism, now.

As for the designation:

  1. It's not yet been actually legally applied

  2. It hasn't made much of an impact on the company

  3. Trumpism always means opting for the bluntest instrument available & this ought not be surprising

@IcecoldSteve Your bot appears to be constantly spamming trades. Is this the intended behavior?

bought Ṁ10 NO

The President ordering his gov't not to use Anthropic, is not "CRAZY." That's just switching to another slop vendor. This remains open.

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